How the SNP helped turn Reform UK into a political force in Scotland
Both John Swinney and Nigel Farage want the Scottish Parliament election to be a ‘straight fight’ between their two parties
John Swinney and Nigel Farage are men of shared ambition. The former declared Scottish politics to be “a straight contest” between Scottish Nationalists and Reform. The latter concurs it is “a straight fight” between their two parties.
“Straight” seems an inappropriate adjective since there is nothing in either’s history which qualifies for it. To both Swinney and Farage, the end has always justified the means, delivery is an afterthought and consequences of their objectives – Brexit or Scexit – are for others to worry about.
For those who fear that the “straight contest” prognosis would take Holyrood into depths yet unplumbed, which is saying something, there are plenty reasons not to swallow the snake-oil just yet.
Chief of the MacFarage clan
The Hamilton by-election, which was the master-plan’s dry run, blew up in Swinney’s face. Numerous council by-elections suggest that voters have their own ways of demonstrating who they dislike least, which has become the stretch of any party’s aspiration in the run-up to May.
This week I received a leaflet through the post from Reform which carried the beaming countenances of Farage and Lord Offord of Garvel, who has laid claim to becoming chief of the MacFarage clan. Since I live in the far recesses of the Outer Hebrides, I assume this missive was widely circulated, without a nod to local concerns or circumstances.
I can report with certainty that immigration is not the major issue in these parts. In fact, the year ended with a dire warning from the Western Isles NHS Board that health and care services in the islands are unsustainable without substantial in-migration of working-age people.” Where from?” is a secondary question.
There was not a word in the leaflet about factors which contribute to the outflow of population to the point at which it is impossible to fill vacancies, whether for care workers, hospital staff or consultants. Almost all of these are within the remit of the Scottish Government – housing, transport, childcare, land use, council funding...
This is the ground on which the Holyrood elections should, in theory, be fought – but certainly will not be if it is left to Swinney versus Farage. It is in the vested interest of both to keep debate as far away as possible from Holyrood’s actual responsibilities.
Clutching at straws
Instead, voters in my crofting village were advised that “uncontrolled immigration now means almost one in three children in Glasgow does not speak English as a first language” and that “a Reform UK government will close the migrant hotels and detain and deport illegal immigrants”.
In other words, Reform will deploy the same themes in every part of Scotland, regardless of anything so tedious as remits, relevance or solutions. But who is to say Farage has misjudged the market he is aiming at?
The truth is that Scotland has its fair share of the disappointed and disillusioned, ready and willing to clutch at the straw of a “strong leader”, unless offered something better.
The leaflet signed by Farage assured us that “Lord Offord of Garvel has given up his Tory peerage to stand for us as “plain old Malcolm from Greenock”. This is slightly less noble than it might appear on first inspection. Put another way, plain old Malcolm got what he wanted as a Tory money-bags before moving on.
The title, bestowed by Boris Johnson in 2021 along with a ministerial job, persists until death and could still come in handy for restaurant bookings, though probably not in Greenock. Lord Offord may have found a way into Holyrood but, judging by the leaflet, will soon discover it has come at a considerable price in terms of self-respect.
Indeed, his political flexibility is already confirmed by his maiden speech as a Tory when he lauded the achievement at COP26 in increasing “the global commitment to net zero from 30 per cent to 90 per cent of world emissions”. In this week’s leaflet, Farage promises to “scrap crazy net-zero targets” with Lord Chancer – sorry Offord – at his right hand.
The rise of right-wing populism
In Scotland, as in much of Western Europe, governments helped bring right-wing populism upon themselves by failing to recognise soon enough the difference between legitimate concerns and deplorable prejudices around race, gender and other fashionable causes. The vast majority in any society are tolerant but do not expect that characteristic to be taken for granted.
The Scottish Government’s constant search for “difference” from the rest of the UK helped make it oblivious to the risks this entailed and the door it was opening to those whose vested interest is in disharmony, which then extends far beyond places where genuine issues exist.
On housing policy, for example, the prerequisite for making Scotland more welcoming for homeless migrants – in itself, a blameless ambition – must surely have been to build more houses. Instead, last year the number of starts in social housing was at its lowest level since records began while homelessness, and the use of temporary accommodation, continued to rise.
The answer to this dichotomy is not to declare a housing emergency but to provide more houses. It is this contradiction between declaration and reality which is politically offensive and reflects a more general truth that Scotland has lived with for too long. All that matters is the headline while delivery invariably falls far short of what has been promised.
When Swinney and Farage boast of a “straight fight”, they are both seeking to exploit a great irony. The only people who can defeat Reform, says Swinney, are those whose policies have facilitated its rise in Scotland, a sentiment which suits Farage down to the ground.
Scottish voters have only a few months to recognise not only the irony but also the irrationality of rewarding it.
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