How many of the Scottish Conservatives' noisier 'beasts' are facing election defeat
Brian Monteith ponders just how bad the Scottish election next month will be for the Scottish Conservatives
There have been a couple of opinion polls published recently telling us what to expect from the Holyrood election next month. With less than four weeks to go, there’s still everything to play for among the political parties, although it would take a major shock for the SNP not to come first.
Most seasoned observers realise an individual poll is only ever a snapshot of a particular moment and it is only when there have been a number of polls, preferably from the same pollster using the same template, that comparisons can begin to suggest if there is a trend in any particular direction. Different pollsters showing a congruence of consistent outcomes over time – such as the SNP being in the lead or the Conservatives being in fourth place – suggests that such outcomes are likely to be realised.
All that might be different are the actual hard numbers, but the parties placings begin to take on a degree of certainty. The two real battles that appear to be firming up are if the SNP’s opponents can prevent John Swinney from obtaining an overall majority for the nationalists – and who will come second to become the official opposition.
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I am not aware of any Scottish Conservatives claiming that their number will continue to form the largest opposition party; instead the focus appears to be trying to shore up the vote as best as possible by especially attacking Reform UK. The loss of vote share to Reform, the loss of Malcolm Offord to Reform and the likely carnage among established Tory MSPs appears to have the group rattled.
Using the Ballot Box Scotland seat projections as an independent comparison, the latest YouGov MRP poll (23 March-8 April) put the number of Conservatives being elected at only seven. The previous YouGov Scottish Opinion Monitor poll (11-18 March) also put the number of Conservative MSPs at seven.
Seven does not look an especially lucky number for Russell Findlay and his group. The one advantage it does offer is that managing to reach double figures, maybe even a dozen (the highest number any single survey has given them in the Ballot Box Scotland seat calculations) could be considered a relatively good performance – when it would actually be their worst since the dawn of devolution.
It was in 2011 under Annabel Goldie that the Scottish Conservatives managed a paltry 15 seats on a constituency vote of 13.9 per cent and a regional list vote of only 12.4 per cent. This nadir was reversed in 2016 and 2021 when first Ruth Davidson and then Douglas Ross both managed to win 31 seats across the constituency and regional lists. I have made the argument many times that this was primarily achieved on the back of a strategy that positioned the Conservatives as the most unionist of the anti-nationalist parties and that they had to use the time it bought them to develop an alternative platform based on an attractive alternative to the SNP if they were to go further.
Yet each time an election came, they wanted to talk about the threat of a referendum – and even now they are still doing it. What we are seeing now is, I believe, the likely reckoning of the Scottish Conservative hierarchy leaving it far too late to build support based on a positive offering.
This helps explain why so much of the carping from the Conservatives is aimed not at the SNP – whose failure, waste and cronyism over 19 years offers the prospect of shooting big political fish in a small barrel – but at Reform UK candidates.
Now the spread of support in polls is 9-12 per cent for constituencies and 8-13 per cent for the regional lists – but with more parties with a real chance of being elected, the Tory vote share will likely produce a smaller return.
Given the pamphleteering of Malcolm Offord in 2010, 2014, 2021 and last year, it might well have been better had the Tory leadership ranked him high enough to be elected last time round. Now his generally positive approach is helping propel Reform to overtake the Conservatives.
What if the pollsters’ surveys and Ballot Box Scotland’s calculations are on the money? What if only seven Tories are elected? Well with eight regions, it would mean one would have no Conservatives, most likely Glasgow. Farewell then, Annie Wells and Sandesh Gulhane. It would also likely mean only one representative in the remaining seven regions, so those candidates ranked second, third or below would not go to Holyrood.
That includes “sitting MSPs” Craig Hoy, Finlay Carson, Sharon Dowey and Brian Whittle in the South of Scotland; Sue Webber in Edinburgh and Lothians East; Jackson Carlaw and Pam Gosal in West of Scotland; Douglas Lumsden and Alexander Burnett in the North East; Stephen Kerr, Roz McCall and Alexander Stewart in Mid Scotland and Fife; and Jamie Halcrow Johnson in Highlands & Islands.
That’s quite a clear out, with some of the party’s noisier beasts falling prey to the electorate’s cull. Only two Tory women would be in Russell Findlay’s not so magnificent seven, whereas looking at Reform UK, which the most recent surveys suggests will be on anything from 14 to 20 MSPs, between a third and a half (5-11) of its number could be women.
While the unionist parties focus on attacking each other, the SNP will remain untroubled. There are surely far more votes to be won by offering a positive vision that creates wealth by improved productivity, enterprise and creativity than promising to distribute from an ever-diminishing pot. Something has got to give, but thanks to the failure of past Scottish Conservative leaders, fewer than ever are looking to them for answers.
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