Higher council tax bills and service cuts: Why SNP Budget will only make us poorer

That left John Swinney having to find at least one other party to agree to vote for, or at least not vote against, his spending plans to allow them to progress. The uncertainty came around what might happen next.

A government which cannot command the support of parliament to pass its Budget is one which has effectively lost confidence, and ultimately, unless a compromise can be found, is one whose leader has to resign as First Minister. The rules say that if a new First Minister cannot be appointed, then parliament must be dissolved and a new election called.

Two elections in two years?

It is fair to state that no party involved at Holyrood was keen for an election this spring. None have candidates or funding in place, or a policy platform worked out, and the polls are suggesting an even more confused political picture after the next Holyrood election than the one we currently have.

To complicate matters further, the law states that even if an election was held this spring, we would still have to have another Holyrood election in May 2026, a prospect unlikely to cheer the hearts of the Scottish voting public. So it was really in no one’s interests for a Budget deal not to be done.

It hardly comes as a surprise, therefore, to see the first stage of the Budget sail through this week. Despite some early posturing from the Greens that, after being expelled from government, they would not be voting again with the SNP, they came to the table once again as the nationalists’ most reliable allies, and agreed support in exchange for a few baubles thrown their way.

It was the same for the Liberal Democrats. Their leader Alex Cole-Hamilton had loudly maintained prior to the discussions that it was a red line for him that he could not support a Budget with any spending in it to promote independence. Now the Lib Dems have done the deal and will be backing the SNP whilst, embarrassingly for Cole-Hamilton, the government has confirmed in parliamentary answers that they will still be spending money on civil servants working on developing and communicating information on independence.

Labour gave Swinney a free pass

But it is the stance of Scottish Labour, under the increasingly hapless leadership of Anas Sarwar, that is the most confusing. At least both the Greens and Liberal Democrats were able to negotiate some minor concessions in exchange for their Budget support.

Last month Scottish Labour announced that, regardless of the terms of the Budget, they would be abstaining on the final vote, effectively giving John Swinney and his team a free pass. The party that likes to present itself as the challenger to the SNP at the next Holyrood election abandoned the field completely, scared off by Swinney’s over-dramatic warnings against chaos and confusion should the Budget be voted down.

Now the drama is over, there are just two more parliamentary stages before the legislative process is completed. That still gives us the opportunity to scrutinise exactly what is on offer from the SNP. And despite having the largest financial settlement in the history of devolution at their disposal, they are leaving Scotland poorer as a result of their choices.

This was supposed to be a Budget that was going to focus on growing the economy. With dismal growth projections for both Scotland and the rest of the UK, it was surely the right priority to bring forward measures to support business expansion. What has actually been delivered, however, is a Budget that does the opposite.

Higher tax rates baked in

According to research by the independent Scottish Parliament Information Centre, spending on three key areas to support economic growth – the enterprise agencies, VisitScotland, and employability schemes – has been cut in real terms compared to the last financial year of 2023-24.

Moreover, the SNP have taken a decision not to pass on the Barnett consequentials from the 40 per cent rates relief for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses announced by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, to apply south of the Border. This means hospitality will see a much less generous package than that which applies in England.

When it comes to personal taxation, although there has been no greater divergence with the rates payable elsewhere in the UK, the Budget bakes in the higher tax rates payable by nearly half the workers in Scotland. That, along with higher land and buildings transaction tax rates on house purchase here compared to down south, continues to cause concern for businesses struggling to recruit higher-paid individuals who worry about the cost of moving to Scotland.

Elsewhere in the Budget, the story is little better. Once again, it seems to be councils who will bear the brunt of the SNP’s cuts agenda. Across Scotland we see vital local facilities such as libraries, swimming pools and leisure centres threatened with closure, whilst many councils are considering council tax increases of 10 per cent or more.

With the Liberal Democrats and Greens supporting this Budget, and Labour sitting on their hands, it’s left to the Scottish Conservatives to provide the only opposition. We are very clear that we will not be supporting a Budget which, despite a record uplift in the Westminster Block Grant, does nothing to help grow the economy, will deliver cuts in local services and higher council tax bills, and continues to see spending to promote the cause of independence.

We may be the only ones voting no to the SNP’s Budget, but in so doing we will be representing the interests of the Scottish people.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife