High welfare, independence referendum and vaccine conspiracy theories: Some Reform ideas will shock you

I can only imagine his appointment came as something of a disappointment to those other experienced politicians who have spent, in some cases, years putting in the hard yards on Reform’s behalf and felt they might have been entitled to a shot at the top job. But, unlike most political parties, Reform is not an internal democracy.

The Scottish party’s leadership is decided not by its members, but by one man – Nigel Farage. And Offord will remain Reform leader in Scotland unless or until Farage determines otherwise. As I pointed out in this column recently, it’s a relationship that will not be without its challenges, given the size of the two egos in the room.

It will also present issues for those who might end up as Reform representatives at Holyrood, each one of whom will be personally selected by Farage. Is their loyalty to him or Offord? And if it is not to the latter, how well will whoever is unfortunate enough to take on the role of party whip be able to exercise discipline at Holyrood?

READ MORE: New Scottish Reform leader Malcolm Offord shows himself as fragile and unserious

Car-crash interviews

It certainly wasn’t the happiest of starts for the new Scottish leader. Not only was his appointment overshadowed by Kemi Badenoch’s exposure of the treachery of Shadow Home Secretary Robert Jenrick, but a succession of what can only be described as car-crash interviews demonstrated the scale of the media challenge facing him.

Offord was clearly uncomfortable with lines of questioning from both ITV News and Sky, when asked about the messaging from Reform in recent contests and from other Holyrood candidates, and his media handler cut both interviews short. That’s not a tactic that will survive the next 16 weeks of campaigning in the run-up to the May 7 election.

Polls currently suggest Reform could finish second, mainly at the expense of the other pro-Union parties. After the latest Norstat poll, the eminent psephologist Professor Sir John Curtice commented that “the SNP’s political prospects have been transformed by the rise of Reform UK. Farage’s party has fractured the unionist vote… As a result, the SNP enjoys a 16-point lead over its nearest rivals on the constituency vote, a lead that is likely to deliver the party the vast bulk of Holyrood’s 73 first-past-the-post seats.”

READ MORE: SNP and Reform’s obsessions with borders won’t help us as economic and social revolution looms

John Swinney has made clear he will take an SNP majority at the forthcoming election as a mandate to push for another independence referendum. As Curtice rightly observes, voting for Reform will simply make that objective much easier. Reform are the greatest gift that Swinney and the SNP could wish for.

And, we have to ask, what exactly is it that people are voting for when they put their crosses against Reform on the ballot paper? We certainly know that Reform are anti-immigration, and anti the EU. But, beyond that, what exactly is the offer?

A loud dog whistle

We do know that Reform will be more sympathetic to higher welfare spending than the Conservatives. They have stated they would support lifting the two-child benefit cap for families where both parents are working, providing they are both British citizens. This is a dog whistle so loud that it would cause even the deafest elderly Labrador to prick up its ears.

Beyond that, we can just about try to piece together some of what Reform might be offering. In a line in their most recent manifesto, they pledged a public inquiry into “vaccine harms”, suggesting that the party is more than happy to extend its appeal to a loose coalition of cranks, crackpots and conspiracy theorists.

When it comes to the economy, far from taking a Conservative approach, we have seen Farage advocate what would appear to be a form of economic nationalism, even arguing for failing industries to be taken back into state ownership. How any of this would be paid for is anybody’s guess, especially as it is going in tandem with a rising welfare bill.

Yes voters in Reform

From a Scottish perspective, Reform cannot even be trusted on the Union. In his weekend interview, Offord indicated that he would be prepared to support another independence referendum in perhaps a decade’s time.

Given we know there are people likely to be Reform Holyrood candidates who freely admit they voted Yes to separation in 2014 that does not come as a shock, but it should leave pro-UK voters who want to see the back of the SNP in May thinking seriously about whether a vote for Reform will achieve that.

Reform benefit from never having been in government, and therefore not having a record to defend. Their pitch appears to be “all things to all people”, without a clear coherent political message. They hope that without being pinned down on the detail of policy they can become a repository for the votes of all those scunnered with current political parties.

Whether such a strategy can survive the heat of an election campaign, with all the scrutiny that brings, remains to be seen. Already there are some indications that Reform’s polling numbers are slipping backwards, and it has certainly been encouraging to see the commensurate increase in Conservative support as Kemi Badenoch’s profile and stock rise in tandem.

Offord will be hoping that when his party finally do get round to publishing their detailed manifesto for Holyrood, it won’t accelerate the decline.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife