Gorton and Denton by-election: Voters have decided Keir Starmer doesn’t cut it as Prime Minister

For decades, the Liberal Democrats (and Liberals before them) have been beneficiaries of these small earthquakes. In this by-election, that role was usurped by the Greens while the poor old Lib Dem amassed two per cent of the votes. So maybe “Liberal revivals” based on by-election glory can be put on hold.

It seems unlikely that voters in Gorton and Denton were attracted by the minutiae of Green policies. In the case of the Muslim community, which the Greens courted furiously, the main appeal was on Palestine. For others, it was about who was best placed to give Labour a kicking while beating Reform.

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The best ‘Stop Reform’ candidate

Throw in a personable candidate with an appealing CV and the stage was set for a late surge to the Greens when it became the perception they were favourites in the “stop Reform” stakes. In short, there are explanations for this result which should constrain the conclusions to be extrapolated.

As far as Labour is concerned, the result did not tell us anything we did not know before. Keir Starmer’s government has contrived to make itself widely unpopular, particularly among many who had vested their hopes in it.

They compounded their mis-steps by blocking the only Labour candidate who might have held the seat, Andy Burnham. The short-term relief he may have brought was subordinated to the imperative of keeping him out of the House of Commons, where he would undoubtedly have become an immediate threat to Starmer’s leadership.

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Instead, Labour got the worst of both worlds – the by-election was duly lost while Starmer’s future looks even more insecure. By early May, it is likely that the great majority of Labour MPs – not to mention voters – will have concluded that a change of leader is the prerequisite for any revival in the party’s fortunes.

There is, unfortunately, nothing in Starmer’s performance or persona which suggests otherwise. He would make a very credible Foreign Secretary or Attorney General but, overwhelmingly, the voters have decided that he doesn’t cut it as Prime Minister. At some point, that has to be the critical test.

Reform failed

Reform UK went into this by-election confident of winning. By that standard, it was a significant failure. The idea that they can march into any constituency as right-wing Tories in thin disguise, depending on the bombast of Nigel Farage to distinguish them from the genuine article, has always seemed vulnerable to challenge.

In Gorton and Denton, they fielded a particularly nasty “celebrity” candidate and got the answer they deserved. It is far too early to say that Reform has peaked but the possibility can at least be considered which would not have been the case if they had won this contest. Success attracts scrutiny and Reform UK failed that test. They will continue to do so.

By the time a general election comes around, the case for tactical voting being a necessity to stop Reform may seem a lot weaker than it does now. If Labour can get its act together, probably under new leadership, it can win back a lot of that ground. The question Labour MPs will ask themselves in May, in the interests of survival, is whether such a change can or should be avoided.

The problems which the Tories face are at least as serious. Their derisory showing confirms a willingness of Tory voters to switch to the red meat of Farage and his motley band without a backwards glance. At the same time, trying to compete with Reform by making themselves more right-wing is shedding any credibility they had with the softer centre of the electorate.

Huge blow to Lib Dems?

In Scotland, it seems incredible that so many voters seem prepared to vote for the party of Jenrick, Braverman and Offord, to whom they would not have given house room if they were still wearing blue rosettes. Again, this encourages hope that, under scrutiny, Reform will start to appear more of a fad than a threat and “who can beat them?” will recede as a question.

And what of the Liberal Democrats? Conceding their status as by-election favourites in England to the Greens would be a huge blow but the more likely outcome will be less straightforward, depending on local and regional circumstances.

The mood is febrile, with far more people than usual voting negatively than positively. Who do they dislike least? Who do they want to stop? And why bother voting at all? Even in such a high profile by-election as Gorton and Denton, only half the voters turned out.

We see the same void to be filled in Scotland. There is no longer any enthusiasm for the SNP as a party of change and progress but it has a hard-core vote based on independence.

There is disappointment among Labour voters which derives mainly from the performance at Westminster. There is the curious rise of Reform. There is recognition of the need for change but uncertainty about how to deliver it without opening the door to something worse.

The Gorton and Denton by-election reinforces these messages rather than heralding a new era in British politics. We have been here before, often. Away from the fringes, the vast majority want little more from politics than improvements in their living standards and the quality of services they depend upon.

Leadership which can persuade them this is possible has a chance to prevail. That leaves the field wide open and in Scotland, the debate surely must eventually focus on matters for which Holyrood is actually responsible.