Don't listen to Donald Trump. North Sea wind can be trillion-pound engine room of UK economic renewal
The total amount of energy available from North Sea wind is equivalent to 80 million barrels of oil a day – far more than produced by Saudi fossil fuel giant Aramco
The prospects for Aberdeen, and with it the North Sea, look increasingly challenged but there is a path through the fog, creating economic prosperity, growth, and energy independence by fully backing offshore wind. So when President Donald Trump told the Prime Minister last week to “ditch windmills” and drill for more oil, he missed the bigger picture that this could unlock for Scotland and for the rest of the UK.
We have the chance to transform our energy system, cut household electricity bills and revive industrial communities. Having spent years working on the opportunities to bring game-changing investment into the UK’s energy infrastructure, I do see a vision for the North Sea that is both bold and achievable.
The opportunity before us is to create a UK-based “green energy super-major” – a homegrown champion to step into the shoes of BP and Shell as they turn their backs on renewables, and to consolidate the North Sea’s fragmented patchwork of seabed concessions into a world-leading, integrated, clean energy powerhouse.
Saudi Arabia of wind
Let’s be clear about the scale of what’s at stake. To put the opportunity for wind in the North Sea into context, the full potential of the North Sea’s wind output is equivalent to 80 million barrels of oil a day.
In comparison, the Saudi Arabian business Aramco – the world’s largest, publicly traded energy company by far – produces only 12.9 million barrels of oil a day. Aramco is valued by the market at $1.7 trillion so by extrapolation the North Sea wind resource could be worth over $10 trillion (about £7.5 trillion), ie over 60 per cent of the European Union’s GDP!
Even if we exploited just a fraction of this potential, the economic and geopolitical benefits would be profound. With North Sea wind, we have the ability to say “no thank you” to all imports of natural gas – including shale from the US. With this approach, the UK could also fund all of its key priorities – from the NHS to defence to decarbonisation – with clean energy.
Taking the size of a standard wind farm from 1GW to 5GW or more, would create a pathway for the cost of fixed-bottom offshore wind to more than halve – exceeded, in due course, by the nascent floating variety. This would bring cheaper electricity onto the UK grid, to be passed through to consumers. A recent poll of 244 global floating wind experts found that 61 per cent believed that, by 2050, the costs of floating offshore wind will be lower than or equal to fixed installations.
No need for gas or massive batteries
Critics, including Mr Trump, love to point out that the "intermittency" of wind power – caused by the fact that the wind doesn’t always blow – is a major constraint. But technology holds the answer and it fits the geography of the North Sea. Wind patterns are dictated by a variety of factors and are absolutely not uniform: just check the weather report on TV.
If we connect a wind farm located in wind basin ‘A’ to another located in wind basin ‘B’ – using seabed transmission cables – we can totally eradicate intermittency in offshore wind. All that is required is that the distance between the two wind basins is sufficient to ensure that their wind patterns are uncorrelated.
With offshore wind on an interconnected basis, we no longer have any need for batteries or gas-fired generation to bridge the gap when the wind is not blowing. This is not a pipe dream – the vision is based on a very serious Norwegian study that examined hourly data in multiple North Sea locations over a 16-year period.
Offshore wind farms are among the largest civil engineering projects ever built. Each tower is identical, opening the door to serial manufacturing and massive economies of scale. The next leap will come from floating wind farms, which can be assembled and maintained ashore – like ships – slashing costs and risks.
SSE’s big chance
This is where Britain’s industrial heritage comes back to life. Floating platforms can be built in our shipyards from Appledore to the Clyde, using British steel, and then transported to their final locations, creating thousands of skilled jobs – not only in energy but also across steel, shipbuilding and marine engineering. Every gigawatt of new offshore wind capacity adds £2-3 billion to the UK economy and supports many thousands of jobs.
SSE, from its headquarters in Perth, is already leading the charge with massive plans for expansion. But by focusing on the North Sea, the company and its partners can drive efficiencies of scale and position Britain as a global leader in clean energy manufacturing and export.
Its Berwick Bank mega-project must quickly be approved, neighbouring concessions belonging to BP, Shell and other should be consolidated, and the entire Firth of Forth Cluster, with 19.4GW of capacity, needs to be interconnected. In so doing, SSE and its partners can generate enough electricity from this site alone to cover almost 25 per cent of the UK’s demand by 2035.
This is a moment for bold leadership. The government’s new industrial strategy must be matched by policies that support large-scale investment, grid upgrades, and the creation of a true “green energy super-major” headquartered here in the UK. With the right support, we can turn the North Sea into the engine room of Britain’s economic and environmental renewal.
The next chapter for the North Sea is not about oil rigs, but about reshaping the UK’s energy future, unlocking enduring economic value, strengthening national security and creating skilled jobs across the country for generations to come.
Eric Knight is chief executive of the Knight Vinke Energy Transition Fund, a supportive, long-term shareholder of SSE plc
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