As Iran crisis deepens, UK must not repeat Iraq War mistakes

It is now 23 years since I said the above words in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq – a war of choice in the Middle East, driven by the United States on dubious legal grounds and in which the United Kingdom found itself increasingly ensnared.

The similarities with Iraq in 2003 cannot be ignored in the growing conflict around Iran, so it is vital that we reflect on the lessons of that sorry legacy.

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A brutal regime

Few of us are going to mourn the loss of leaders of the Iranian regime, which led a brutal crackdown on protestors just weeks ago, and which has made its own, seemingly indiscriminate, attacks on neighbouring countries in response to the US-Israeli assault.

If that were the sole measure by which we determined the reasonableness of a war, however, the outcome of Iraq would have been far more positive than it turned out to be. In 2003, at least, the US still paid lip service to international institutions and processes.

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Now we have irrational actors on all sides who at best do not care about international law and at worst actively seek to destroy it. It is hard to look at this conflict and see the attacks by the US and Israel – made without consultation with allies, let alone international consensus – as a long-term solution to anything.

It is easy, meanwhile, for those cheerleading for the UK to take an offensive role alongside the US to point to the apparent one-sidedness of the war thus far. The opening stages of any conflict, however, are going to be the least painful for the initiator of that conflict, and the easiest to predict.

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Not much of a plan?

Every stage beyond this one will become harder to sustain without sacrifice and harder still to foresee. That was true of the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and more besides in the past two decades, and it is likely to remain true now.

Then there is the matter of what we intend to happen to Iran post-war. Nice though it would be to imagine that a ‘clean’ removal of Iranian leadership could lead to a smooth transition to a moderate, democratic and peaceable government, that has never been the case in the past. If the plan is to keep bombing until Iran has a government that we approve of, then it is not much of a plan.

What is missing here, particularly in relation to the UK role in the current conflict, is a clear sense of what our interests and objectives are. If there is a lesson from Iraq, it is surely that wars of choice without a clear objective or endpoint are likely to linger with us far beyond the initial moment of intervention.

Every bomb that is dropped on Iran – and dropped by Iran on its neighbours in turn – will create ripples that spread far and wide. The Prime Minister – and those who would cheerlead us into another war in the Middle East today – would be wise to reflect upon that legacy.

Alistair Carmichael is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland