Silent Crime: Shoplifting on the rise across Scotland, but true number of offences likely to be higher

As part of a UK-wide campaign launched by National World, the publishers of The Scotsman, scrutinising the issue of silent crime, it is possible to pinpoint some ignominious trends, and highlight several concerning findings. 

Data presented last week to a meeting of the Scottish Police Authority’s policing performance committee offered a helpful breakdown of crimes and complaints across Scotland between April and June this year. Over that period, there has been a notable spike in shoplifting.

The statistics show that the number of thefts was up from 8,880 in April to June 2023 to 10,758 across the same three month period this year - an increase of more than 21.1 per cent. Compared to the five year mean, the spike is 53.8 per cent, although given that period spans the Covid-19 pandemic, caution is advisable. 

There are clearly interrelated issues underpinning this surge, such as the cost of living crisis. But looking at its impact as a crime, are police coping with the increase? Well, the good news is that the detection rate is up. The bad news is that it only increased by 2.1 per cent, suggesting that they have some way to go in order to keep pace with the offending.

Whether Scotland’s national force can do so is subject to debate. Earlier this year, it began the national rollout of its contentious new ‘proportionate response to crime’ policy. The approach means that officers will no longer investigate every reported low level offence, with the decision based on variable factors such as the availability of CCTV, eyewitnesses, or other evidence. 

However, there are misgivings about the policy. As The Scotsman reported last week, polling shows that the majority of people are not aware of the shift, and most of those who responded said they took the view that, regardless of whether there are obvious lines of enquiry, the police should investigate all minor issues the same way.

The policy means that where there is little in the way of material evidence around a shoplifting incident, the police may not fully investigate as they have done in the past. The obvious risk of that is that the victims become disenchanted and no longer report the incidents. 

Unfortunately, limitations around crime data means it is hard to know exactly how many shoplifting incidents go unreported by businesses across the country each year. However, the annual Scottish Crime and Justice Survey can perhaps offer a few pointers. 

Its latest iteration estimated that just over one in every four (27 per cent) property crimes - a heading covering the likes of household thefts as well as vandalism - are reported to the police. That means that more than a quarter of million incidents go unreported.

As the National World campaign continues, we want to know what you make of crime in Scotland. To do this, we’re asking you to fill in this survey on crime in your area so we can include the experiences of residents like you.