Why the winds may be shifting on Ming Yang turbine factory decision for Scotland

Ever since 2021, when the Guangdong-based company signed a memorandum of understanding with the Conservative government, Ming Yang has been hoping to capitalise on the UK’s offshore wind ambitions. Those have been progressing under Labour’s plans to decarbonise the grid, under which turbines are ultimately to replace gas-generated power.

Scotland is to play an outsized role in this, long term, given that 60 per cent of the ScotWind project, made up of 18 wind farms planned for Scottish waters, is for so-called “floating” wind farms far out to sea, rather than turbines fixed to seabed in relatively shallow waters.

Read more: How the Scottish Government wooed Ming Yang

Ming Yang specialises in floating wind and has wowed the industry by developing ever-larger machines at a fraction of the cost of those from rivals Vestas of Denmark and Germany’s Siemens Gamesa. Last week, the Chinese company unveiled what it billed as “the world’s first fully recyclable carbon fibre wind turbine blade”.

Ming Yang’s first move came a few months after Crown Estate Scotland in January 2022 awarded options to build wind farms in Scottish waters under ScotWind. In July of that year, Ming Yang listed on the London Stock Exchange, raising $657 million via securities called global depository receipts and valuing the company – also listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange – at almost $10 billion. At the time, Ming Yang said proceeds would be used “to support the growth of its international business”.

Fast forward to October last year and Ming Yang unveiled plans to create “Britain’s largest, and first fully integrated, wind turbine manufacturing facility” in Scotland. This involves a proposed investment of £1.5 billion to build a factory for turbine blades and nacelles (units that house much of a turbine’s electronics) for the UK and for export, as part of a pan-European strategy. Aman Wang, Ming Yang’s UK chief executive, said this would make the UK “the global hub for offshore wind technology”.

Up to 3,000 new jobs could be created if all three phases of the project are completed at the factory, to be located at Ardesier Port, near Inverness, owned by Texas-based private equity firm Quantum Capital Group. Yet the road to Ardesier has not been straightforward. Costs have spiralled for developers. Debate has swirled at the highest level of the UK government over whether Ming Yang should be allowed into the UK’s critical energy infrastructure.

At issue has been cyber security and the potential for turbines to be switched off remotely, as well as supply chain dependency on China. Germany has already signalled its opposition to using Chinese wind turbines.

Some developers argue that Scotland’s floating wind ambitions can’t happen without Ming Yang, while Scottish government figures including deputy first minister Kate Forbes have made no secret of their enthusiasm for the Chinese company.

Calum MacPherson, chief executive at Inverness & Cromarty Firth Green Freeport, highlights another issue: “Everyone needs to be aware that our European neighbours are actively seeking to draw any investment by Chinese energy companies to locations such as Denmark, rather than the UK. Getting jobs and manufacturing onto UK soil is critical.”

Downing Street had been expected to decide last spring. But with US president Trump due for a private visit to his Scottish golf courses in the summer, followed by a state visit to London in September, things were put on hold for fear of attracting the wrath of a man known for his loathing for “windmills”, not to mention US-China rivalry.

In recent weeks, attention has been focused on the UK’s approach to China’s new embassy in London, which was finally approved this week. Ming Yang looks to be next in a possible package resetting the UK-China relationship when Starmer visits Beijing next week.

Until recently, I would have assigned a 50-50 probability to Ming Yang’s chances of approval. But I now think geopolitics has shifted the odds.

To understand why, look at Canada. Its prime minister, Mark Carney, has just engineered a major reset of his country’s relations with China. During a visit to Beijing last week - the first by a Canadian premier for eight years – Beijing agreed to cut tariffs on canola imports in return for Ottawa largely reversing a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

This not only marked a break with US policy, which largely blocks the import of Chinese EVs through high tariffs. It also signalled that Canada believes that engagement is in its long-term economic interest, especially with the US - its largest trading partner - now unreliable.

On Wednesday in Davos, Carney drove home Canada’s new geoeconomic calculus in landmark speech, warning of “a rupture in the world order” – a reference to Trump’s pursuit of Greenland - and laying out starkly how Canada was “prioritising broad engagement to maximise our influence”.

For Starmer, there’s important domestic context, too. Refuse Ming Yang, and Labour opens itself up immediately to the attack line from the Scottish National Party ahead of the Holyrood elections in May that it is choking off “green jobs” in the Highlands.

But approve Ming Yang as part of a UK-China reset, and Labour can claim a bold new approach to Trump as Europe is starting to push back, while claiming credit for job creation in renewables in Scotland at a time of intense pubic disquiet over oil and gas job losses in the North Sea.

Which way will the policy turbine ultimately turn?