Why Scottish onshore wind is critical for UK's energy security

It is therefore difficult to understand why one of the country’s cheapest, fastest to deploy and most reliable sources of clean power is being artificially constrained. However, that is exactly the challenge onshore wind in Scotland is facing as we look beyond 2030.

New analysis from Aurora Energy Research shows that addressing this problem by rebalancing some offshore wind in Scotland towards onshore wind could reduce total system costs by up to 6 per cent between 2030 and 2050, saving UK consumers roughly £5 billion every year compared to the current policy pathway.

Industry understands that the government had to move quickly on the Clean Power Action Plan (CPAP) to set out an ambitious pathway to rapidly decarbonise the UK’s power system by 2030. But we must also recognise, with the benefit of hindsight, that embedded within the Plan are clear miscalculations that now need addressing.

On the one hand, the Plan recognises the importance of deploying low-cost renewables at scale up to 2030 and beyond. Yet on the other, it effectively shuts the door on one of the obvious opportunities to achieve that with Scottish onshore wind.

Under current proposals, deployment of Scottish onshore wind falls off a cliff after 2030, with only a small amount of additional capacity permitted through to the mid-2030s amounting to a “de facto ban” – one that risks sidelining projects, deterring investors and undermining confidence at precisely the wrong moment.

The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero’s rationale appears to rest on concerns about grid constraints and the cost of moving electricity from Scotland’s wind-rich regions to demand centres in the south. Yet it is not clear that these costs outweigh the clear economic advantages of onshore wind. Indeed, Renewable UK projects that expanding the onshore wind supply chain could add £56bn to the UK economy in the years ahead.

More importantly, the same constraint logic does not appear to have been applied consistently to offshore wind – despite the fact that much of that capacity would rely on the same transmission infrastructure.

This is certainly not to downplay the role of offshore wind, which we will needs lots more of, to form the backbone of the UK’s future energy future system and meet future demand. However, we cannot ignore the fact that several large offshore projects have recently been paused or abandoned completely, meaning we will need greater optionality across other cheap, quick-to-deploy technologies to fill this gap and ensure targets remain on track.

Aurora’s analysis is unequivocal. Increasing the share of Scottish onshore wind in the UK’s energy mix after 2030 delivers a lower-cost system overall, driven by significant reductions in both policy and balancing costs.

As the new Energy Secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, considers a preferred pathway for the UK’s Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP), the blueprint for the UK’s energy production after 2030, it is critical that we avoid locking UK consumers into higher long-term costs by ignoring the potential for Scottish onshore wind deployment.

At a time when accelerating home-grown energy is in the spotlight more than ever, the case for maximising domestic renewable generation has never been stronger and is essential if the government is serious about boosting UK energy security. Scottish onshore wind must be recognised, not as a secondary option, but as a core strategic component capable of delivering secure, affordable and domestically produced power at scale and playing a critical role in achieving this objective.

Roy Bedlow, Founder and chief executive at Low Carbon