Why Scotland’s retailers see ‘grounds for guarded optimism’ heading into 2026

Major sporting events such as the World Cup finals next summer and Glasgow’s hosting of the Commonwealth Games could provide retailers with a welcome boost as they battle weak consumer spending and wage and property costs pressures.

In his new year message, the director of the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC), David Lonsdale, said the outcome of the Holyrood elections would also be “of keen interest” to the industry in 2026 as he called for politicians to make growing the private sector economy the “preeminent priority”.

He said: “The outcome of the debates on tax and regulation will shape the prospects for the industry and high streets for years to come and ought to be aimed at making Scotland the best place in the UK to grow a retail business.

“The early omens for a contest focused on growth seem favourable, albeit whether the parties can truly wean themselves off the instinct to regulate and tax remains to be seen.”

Lonsdale added: “With football fans set to get behind Steve Clarke and the men’s Scotland team ahead of the World Cup finals next summer, retailers will hope this will kick-off a brighter period of trading for Scottish stores. Glasgow’s Commonwealth Games follows hot on its heels and this summer spectacle of major sporting events could provide a boon to retailers.”

Recent reports have painted a mixed picture for Scotland’s retail sector at what should be the busiest and most profitable time of year for high street traders.

Earlier in December, the SRC warned that Scottish retailers’ hopes of a strong end to 2025 were “hanging by a thread” after disappointing November shop takings. Adjusted for inflation, there was a year-on-year fall of 0.5 per cent in overall sales during November, according to the latest retail sales monitor from the SRC and KPMG.

Fashion, beauty and electrical sales were described as “mediocre” as nervousness about the economy and poor weather kept shoppers at home. Food sales were also disappointing, though strong competition between the big supermarket chains helped keep a lid on prices.

In his latest message, Lonsdale said: “2025 was a period of challenge for Scotland’s retail industry against a backdrop of gyrations in geopolitics and international trade, tepid economic growth and consumer spending, and burgeoning statutory costs.

“The well of discretionary spending began to parch as Scottish households had to contend with elevated inflation and double-digit increases in council tax and water bills. All of this puts a dampener on disposable spending and consequently spending in stores.”

He added: “Despite the headwinds there are grounds for guarded optimism for the year ahead. Scotland’s retailers have demonstrated their remarkable ingenuity and tenacity on multiple occasions during this decade and shown themselves to be a force for good in our communities.

“No matter what obstacles are thrown their way they will adapt and play a full part in driving forward Scotland’s economy.”