Scottish surveyors expect house prices to rise amid brighter picture for buyers

The latest snapshot from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) shows that a net balance of plus-33 per cent of surveyors in Scotland expect house prices to rise over the next three months. It marks the strongest outcome since February 2022, and up from a balance of just 15 per cent that was registered in August. Meanwhile, a positive net balance of 32 per cent of surveyors expect house sales to increase over the coming three months.

With regard to prices over the past three months, a net balance of plus-40 per cent of respondents reported that they had risen. This is above the UK average balance of 11 per cent.

Rics said supply remained a challenge in the Scottish housing market. Respondents to the survey reported that new instructions to sell fell during the month of September. It was the second consecutive month that this indicator had been in negative territory. On the demand side, a net balance of minus-6 per cent of Scottish surveyors reported that new buyer enquiries fell through September. Although this figure remains in negative territory, it is up from the minus-12 per cent seen in August.

Grant Robertson of Allied Surveyors Scotland in Glasgow said: “The market has been slow to pick up after the summer, primarily due to the lack of rate reduction by the Bank of England. The mixed sentiment over future changes is holding everything back.”

Craig Henderson of Graham & Sibbald in Ayrshire said: “September was a busy month, with instructions of home reports higher than the same month last year. This may be as buyers are seeking to market and sell before the festive period. Demand is still there, but buyers continue to be price sensitive.”

Rics’ head of market analytics, Tarrant Parsons, noted: “The latest survey results once again convey a brighter picture for housing market activity, with the recent easing in mortgage interest rates continuing to support a recovery in buyer demand. Critical for the outlook, a further unwinding in monetary policy is anticipated over the months ahead, which should create a more favourable backdrop for the market moving forward.”

A report last month indicated that average Scottish house prices were set to grow by 3 per cent this year, amid a “greater sense of stability in the market”. Rettie, the Edinburgh-headquartered property firm, said its research unit had upped its central forecast following the recent reduction in the UK base interest rate, with further falls in borrowing costs predicted in the coming months as inflation comes under control. The same study predicts an average house price increase of 3 per cent for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 4 per cent.

While mortgage rates are now falling, they are expected to remain above historic levels for some time, meaning the market will still face a headwind, according to the latest research.

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