Scotland’s private businesses are bullish on growth – but how do they keep up momentum?

KPMG’s latest Private Enterprise Barometer, a survey of more than 100 privately-owned businesses across Scotland, revealed that 94 per cent of business leaders are confident about growth this year. That’s an increase from 90 per cent in January. This confidence is striking, given current global volatility, and highlights how Scottish firms are responding to uncertainty with decisive action.

In my view, several factors are driving this growing momentum. According to our latest European Economic Outlook, Scotland’s GDP is forecast to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2026, just ahead of the UK average of 1.1 per cent. One key contributor is the impact of new international trade agreements starting to take effect. Notably, the UK-India deal significantly reducing tariffs, particularly on Scotch whisky, Scotland’s largest export by volume, delivering a meaningful boost to one of our most valuable industries.

Meanwhile, falling interest rates are providing an improved funding environment, giving businesses the confidence and headroom to invest. Edinburgh also continues to reinforce its reputation as both a financial centre and a growing force in advanced technology, attracting talent, capital and innovation.

This last point is crucial. Nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of Scottish businesses are prioritising investment in artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity and digital transformation.

This isn’t about reacting to trends; it’s about staying ahead of them. We’re seeing businesses across sectors treat technology as a strategic enabler. It’s enhancing customer experience, streamlining operations and shaping more agile, future-ready business models.

We’re also seeing a concerted push to strengthen the skills base with over a third (38 per cent) prioritising investment in workforce and skills development.

Whether through apprenticeships, upskilling programmes or partnerships with Scotland’s excellent universities, businesses are recognising the need for talent to support developing technologies like AI. The companies best placed to succeed are those building the right teams to get the most out of the digital tools now available.

High ambitions and high pressures

Yet for all the momentum, challenges remain.

Core sectors such as food and drink, energy and aerospace continue to grapple with rising input costs, supply chain disruption and geopolitical uncertainty. On top of this, regulatory and labour market pressures, from National Insurance increases and minimum wage hikes to shifting employment rights, are increasing compliance complexity. The introduction of new US tariffs has also left many exporters reassessing their cost base and global competitiveness.

Yet Scottish firms are not standing still.

Many are meeting these challenges with bold, proactive strategies. A full 71 per cent are exploring new markets, while a similar proportion are planning to introduce new products and services. Others are pursuing alternative routes to growth with nearly half (47 per cent) now open to private equity investment, reflecting a willingness to embrace new capital sources and partnerships.

Ultimately the current wave of confidence among Scotland’s private enterprises suggests we’re entering a new chapter of growth – one that’s bolder, more digitally enabled and increasingly global in outlook.

But momentum must be maintained. That means continued investment and thoughtful engagement with policymakers to ensure regulation supports rather than stifles progress. It also calls for collaboration with advisers, investors and peers to unlock new opportunities and overcome complexity together.

At KPMG, we’re proud to stand alongside Scotland’s business community as it moves forward with ambition, purpose and vision.

Vishal Chopra, Scotland Office Senior Partner at KPMG UK