Right balance of workers is vital for Scotland’s future

As the population rises, strategic immigration reform could help ensure economic stability

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest data indicates Scotland’s population could grow by over 5 million people in the next decade. This growth poses both opportunities and challenges for Alba as she competes for her share of talent in an increasingly mobile and global workforce. With Scotland facing acute skills shortages across several sectors, an aging population and declining birth rates, strategic immigration reform could be a critical tool to ensure economic stability and growth while enhancing the country’s appeal as a destination for global talent.

Historically, immigration has played a significant role in addressing Scotland’s economic needs, especially in sectors requiring specialist skills, as well as attracting new talent. Targeted immigration policies have supported regional development, such as in the Highlands and Islands, and recent discussions have highlighted the potential of a reinvented Rural Visa Pilot. Beyond addressing labour shortages, immigration can strengthen communities at risk of population decline, boost local economies and foster entrepreneurship—benefits that are worth considering.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Just last week, First Minister John Swinney proposed his vision for a new Scottish Post-Study visa, emulating its 20-year-old sibling, the ‘Fresh Talent Scheme’ (spearheaded by the former Scottish Labour Government). However, a key challenge in attracting skilled talent is Scotland’s higher taxes compared to other parts of the UK, which may deter some higher income earners from relocating.

Scotland's population is set to rise by millions in the next few years, says Kelly HardmanScotland's population is set to rise by millions in the next few years, says Kelly Hardman
Scotland's population is set to rise by millions in the next few years, says Kelly Hardman

In 2019, the Scottish government analysed potential adjustments to the Skilled Worker route, as well as the introduction of a ‘Scottish Visa,’ which would be linked to a Scottish tax code. The concept, which would require individuals to live and work in Scotland, has also resurfaced in connection to the proposal for a revamped post-study visa. However, concerns related to the ability to venture south or beyond Hadrian’s Wall, highlight the need for further consideration and thoughtful planning.

The 2024 revamp of the Immigration Salary List (ISL), formerly known as the Shortage Occupation List, also brought challenges. Whilst companies have historically been able to use concessions for well workers and wind worker specialists operating in UK territorial waters, the ISL went one step further and removed several key engineering roles—which benefited many Scottish sponsors. Now, the ISL includes only a few relevant occupations—fishing boat masters, boat and ship builders and repairers (Scotland only), and high integrity pipe welders. This narrow focus does not adequately address Scotland’s needs, particularly as sectors like energy and space continue to grow rapidly. Scottish Engineering’s recent Skills Gap Analysis for Scotland highlights the extent of the severe skilled worker shortages in both sectors. Given the UK government’s bold AI plans, these shortages could significantly hinder growth in these critical industries.

With hopes that GB Energy will become a cornerstone of Scotland’s energy future, a key question must be posed: how will the country fill the roles essential to its success, amid skills gaps and an aging workforce? The recent launch of the Skills Passport aims to help oil and gas workers move into clean and green energy roles, thus creating a new catalogue of talent. However, the current immigration framework still creates barriers to accessing the global talent needed to meet these demands. The concessions mentioned above, as well as incentives such as reduced visa costs, could further enhance Scotland’s appeal. In addition, the Scottish government is positively embracing displaced talent and is increasingly encouraging prospective employers to explore these talent pools for specialist skill sets. With the second reading of Stephen Gethins’ Private Members' Bill scheduled for April 2025, it resurrects the debate around the merits of decentralised and regional immigration policies to address Scotland’s unique economic and declining population challenges, as well as sector-specific demands. As Scotland looks to the next decade, strategic immigration reform will be essential to securing its place as a destination of choice for global talent. By addressing current barriers and championing targeted concessions, The Land of the Brave can rise to the challenges of population growth and economic transition—ensuring a prosperous future for generations to come.

Kelly Hardman is a Director and represents Fragomen in Scotland. Fragomen is a global law firm that advises on immigration and mobility.

Comments

 0 comments

Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.

Dare to be Honest
Follow us
©National World Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.Cookie SettingsTerms and ConditionsPrivacy notice