'Unpredictable' 2026 forecast for Scottish visitor attractions as war and World Cup to hit tourism

Association of Leading Visitor Attractions (Alva) said tourists from long haul destinations such as Japan were already beginning to cancel trips.

Meanwhile, Scottish fans travelling to and from the World Cup in the US had pushed prices higher, deterring American visitors already nervous about travelling during president Donald Trump's war with Iran - while nationwide US celebrations for the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence could also see more Americans opting to stay at home.

However, Alva director Bernard Donoghue said the hit could be counteracted by a continued growth in a staycation market. New figures for 2025 found Scotland outperformed the rest of the UK last year, with a 2.6 per cent rise in figures to both pay-for and free attractions.

Autumn and winter light shows, such as the Christmas at the Botanics at Edinburgh's Royal Botanic Gardens, are also seeing a spike in popularity.

Mr Donoghue said: “We've started seeing cancellations from long haul Japanese visitors to the UK, for example, because they would normally change in Dubai or elsewhere in the United Arab Emirates.

“The Gulf war is definitely having an effect on inbound tourism to the UK. It think we will see a bit of a dip from the US, also partly because America is celebrating its own 250th birthday this year and because we've got two home nations in the World Cup, that slightly put prices up of transatlantic flights. I think Americans may be thinking, ‘I'm just going to give the UK a miss this year’.”

New figures showed in 2025 the most-visited free attraction in Scotland continued to be the National Museum of Scotland, which saw 2.3 million visits and moved to 12th place UK-wide, followed by Edinburgh Castle which continued to be the most visited paid for attraction in Scotland with a three per cent increase in visitors to 2m, taking it into 15th place.

National Galleries of Scotland said its National Gallery in Edinburgh had welcomed more than two million visitors for the first time ever, while 2.6m people visited its three sites.

The cost of living crisis - which is set to worsen due to energy prices spiralling as a result of the war in the Middle East - has hit consumer spending. Mr Donoghue said visitors last year were happy to spend money on "premium" high quality tickets for exhibitions such as Andy Goldsworthy at the National Galleries of Scotland, while smaller attractions are seeing a reduction in numbers as people are less happy to "take a punt" on visiting somewhere not so well-known.

“A rise in energy prices, of course, is really going to hit people's pockets,” he said. “So as ever, they're going to be more tactical about how they spend the leisure pounds and their leisure hours.”

He said 2025 had been the most difficult year financially since the pandemic for visitor attractions, with many Alva members having to undergo restructures after National Insurance changes and an increase in the minimum wage hit costs.

He said: “We always knew that 2025 was going to be a really tough year. Now in 2026, we've got an ongoing cost of living crisis, Gulf War, energy price increases. It feels like 2026 is more unpredictable than 2025 was.”

While National Galleries Scotland in Edinburgh welcomed two million visitors last year, Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum saw a three per cent increase to 1.2m and moved up one place to 26th followed by Riverside Museum with 1.2m visitors.

Mr Donoghue added: “Scotland was outperforming the rest of the UK last year, and I think that's partly down to really good programming at museums and galleries. There was a bit of a staycation effect last year, particularly in Scotland, where the really good weather in the summer prompted people to stay at home and discover that what was on their doorstep.

He said free visitor attractions “are booming”, however, pay-for “blockbuster” events such as the Andy Goldsworthy exhibition at the National Galleries of Scotland are also thriving.

He said: “That’s no surprise, because people are looking to be really cautious about their spending. But there are a number of examples last year, when if you've got the right program, and it's a blockbuster and it's got a real fan base, people are really prepared to spend their time and their money.

“However, they've become slightly more risk averse, so they'll go to trusted things that they know will be really good, as opposed to say, taking a punt [on something new].”

Anne Lyden, director general at National Galleries of Scotland, said: "We're thrilled that 2025 was another record-breaking year for the National gallery in Edinburgh, exceeding 2 million visitors for the first time ever.

“It proves that despite the increasingly difficult economic climate and uncertain times, the public’s desire for rich cultural experiences is bigger than ever.”

Glasgow Museums, which includes Kelvingrove, Riverside and the Burrell, welcomed 3.7m visitors last year.

Jane Rowlands, head of Glasgow Museums and Collections, said: “While venues such as Kelvingrove, Riverside and the Burrell are long-established favourites, they continue to evolve through new displays, acquisitions and events that encourage repeat visits.

“The high number of international visitors also reinforces Glasgow’s standing as a world-class cultural destination.”

Sarah Cathcart, director of learning and engagement at the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, said illuminated trails such as the lights event at Christmas at the Botanics had “certainly captured the enthusiasm of huge audiences around Scotland and the wider UK”.

She said: “For a decade, at the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, we have welcomed around 90,000 visitors every year to Christmas at the Botanics - during a relatively short run between late November and the final days of December.”

A VisitScotland spokesperson said: “Despite challenging times for the industry, it’s encouraging to see so many attractions showing year-on-year growth in the latest Alva figures. It’s clear that the popularity of the historical fantasy series Outlander is continuing to have an impact on visitor numbers.

“Visitor attractions are the cornerstone of Scotland’s visitor economy and an essential part of our destination and market development work.”

He added: “The situation in the Middle East is extremely worrying. While we’re concerned about any impact on our industry, we’re still currently seeing strong interest in Scotland from our North American and European markets. It’s a constantly changing situation and we will continue to liaise with the Scottish Government, stakeholders and partners to monitor the situation and consider any impact on the visitor economy and our industry in Scotland.”